Security

Political violence is very unevenly distributed over time, with periods of relative calm followed by massive waves of attacks. These fluctuations make it difficult to detect if violence is increasing or decreasing. This dashboard uses a novel methodology to detect temporal changes in political violence associated with specific groups, regions, and countries in the Central Sahel and Lake Chad regions. Using daily rates of violent events and fatalities, the technique detects trends and shocks in conflict intensity that would not necessarily be visible using standard time-series analysis.

How to use the dashboard

First, select a group, region, or country. Then, explore the daily rate of violent events and fatalities. Look for sharp increases or decreases that indicate changes in the intensity of violence. A plateau means that the intensity remains constant in time, while an increase or decrease indicates a change in intensity.

Example: Boko Haram, violence against civilians

From April to June 2012, Boko Haram steadily increased its violent activity targeting civilians, as shown in the daily rate of violent events (blue chart). After this initial rise, the attacks involving Boko Haram and its splinter group the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) formed in 2016 stabilized at a lower level, with a slight decrease up to mid-2018. During this time, the insurgents were involved in an average of one violent event every two days. However, between June 2018 and February 2019, Boko Haram and ISWAP significantly escalated their operations, with the daily rate increasing nearly fourfold, from 0.5 events per day to 1.7 events per day. This higher rate of violent events then remained stable through October 2024, signalling a sustained period of heightened activity.

Policy implications

Changes in the number of violent events and fatalities highlight strategic shifts in contemporary’s conflicts. In northern Nigeria, for example, the “supercamp” strategy adopted by the Nigerian government has led to a significant increase in violence against civilians in the countryside since 2019. As soldiers were pulled back from their forward posts to fortified camps, insurgents filled the void left by government in rural areas. These findings emphasize the need for tailored policy responses like enhanced monitoring and civilian protection, emphasizing community security and early warning systems. Moreover, strategic interventions could address the drivers of the group’s sustained operational capacity, including financial flows, recruitment, and local grievances.